Real Estate Market Growth Rate: October 2026
Last updated . All data pieces · Methodology
Anyone weighing a purchase, a sale or an investment wants to know whether the real estate market is still growing. The answer depends on what you measure. Home prices, the total value of property owners hold, the industry's output, spending on new housing and the number of homes sold each tell a different story, and they don't always move together. Location matters too, since one state can gain while its neighbor slips. A single growth rate hides that split between rising values and slower building and sales, along with the wide gaps between states.
We compiled seven measures of U.S. real estate growth from five public sources: the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the Federal Reserve Board, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the Census Bureau with HUD. The headline figure is FHFA's seasonally adjusted House Price Index, which rose 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026. Annual data run from 2016 through 2025, and the latest readings cover periods from the second quarter of 2026 through September 2026. Where we calculated a change ourselves, the formula appears below the table.
U.S. Real Estate Market Growth Rate by Measure, Latest Period
Price and value measures rose over the past year, while new home sales and housing starts came in lower, though Census found neither annual change statistically significant. Selling activity has its own timeline, covered in our data on how long it takes to sell a house.
| Measure | What it measures | Period | Growth rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| FHFA House Price Index (purchase-only, seasonally adjusted) | Repeat-sales prices of single-family homes with Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac mortgages | July 2025 to July 2026 | +2.6% |
| Federal Reserve Financial Accounts (Z.1), household real estate | Market value of owner-occupied real estate held by households, end of quarter | Q2 2025 to Q2 2026 | +2.5% (calculated) |
| Commercial property price index, all properties (BIS) | Repeat-sales commercial property prices, based on CoStar data | Q2 2025 to Q2 2026 | +8.8% (calculated) |
| BEA real value added, real estate and rental and leasing | Inflation-adjusted output of the industry | Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026, annual rate | +4.3% |
| BEA real residential fixed investment | Inflation-adjusted residential investment spending | Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026, annual rate | +2.8% |
| Census/HUD new home sales | New single-family houses sold, seasonally adjusted annual rate | August 2025 to August 2026 | -2.0% (not statistically significant) |
| Census/HUD housing starts | Privately owned housing units started, seasonally adjusted annual rate | September 2025 to September 2026 | -7.4% (not statistically significant) |
Sources: FHFA, July 2026 monthly HPI release (Sept. 29, 2026); Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States Z.1, Q2 2026, Table S1M.b line 4, not seasonally adjusted (Sept. 11, 2026); BIS, Commercial property price index, United States, all properties (accessed Oct. 22, 2026); BEA, Value Added by Industry, Table TVA101-Q and BEA, NIPA Table 1.1.1 (published Sept. 30, 2026); Census Bureau and HUD, New Residential Sales, August 2026 (Sept. 24, 2026); Census Bureau and HUD, New Residential Construction, September 2026 (Oct. 20, 2026). Calculated: household real estate = $49,791.7 billion / $48,598.1 billion - 1; commercial property = index 187.2849 / 172.126 - 1. BEA rates compare one quarter with the previous quarter and express the change at an annual rate. Census margins of error at 90% confidence: new home sales ±15.7%, housing starts ±11.5%. This product uses FHFA data but is neither endorsed nor certified by FHFA.
House Price Growth by State, Q2 2025 to Q2 2026
FHFA reported that prices rose over the year in 46 states and the District of Columbia and fell in four. Fees set as a percentage of the sale price, such as many real estate agent commissions, grow in dollar terms as prices rise.
| State | 1-year change, Q2 2025 to Q2 2026 | 5-year change, Q2 2021 to Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| United States | +2.1% | +33.4% |
| Alabama | +2.8% | +35.6% |
| Alaska (low volume) | +8.3% | +37.3% |
| Arizona | +0.6% | +27.5% |
| Arkansas | +1.1% | +37.9% |
| California | -0.2% | +17.3% |
| Colorado | -0.5% | +16.0% |
| Connecticut | +4.7% | +49.6% |
| Delaware (low volume) | +3.3% | +37.3% |
| District of Columbia (low volume) | +1.7% | -2.3% |
| Florida | +1.0% | +37.5% |
| Georgia | +1.9% | +39.2% |
| Hawaii (low volume) | +5.8% | +38.0% |
| Idaho | +3.6% | +24.6% |
| Illinois | +5.6% | +44.0% |
| Indiana | +3.5% | +39.4% |
| Iowa | +2.2% | +32.2% |
| Kansas | +3.3% | +37.1% |
| Kentucky | +4.3% | +39.5% |
| Louisiana | +1.6% | +16.3% |
| Maine | +1.1% | +47.2% |
| Maryland | +1.0% | +25.6% |
| Massachusetts | +3.6% | +35.0% |
| Michigan | +3.8% | +38.8% |
| Minnesota | +2.5% | +24.7% |
| Mississippi | +0.5% | +34.7% |
| Missouri | +3.8% | +38.2% |
| Montana | +2.8% | +40.6% |
| Nebraska | +2.0% | +33.6% |
| Nevada | +2.8% | +28.7% |
| New Hampshire | +3.1% | +46.1% |
| New Jersey | +4.6% | +50.5% |
| New Mexico | -1.2% | +33.9% |
| New York | +3.5% | +44.0% |
| North Carolina | +0.4% | +41.2% |
| North Dakota | +4.8% | +32.1% |
| Ohio | +4.4% | +41.9% |
| Oklahoma | +2.0% | +32.1% |
| Oregon | +0.3% | +15.8% |
| Pennsylvania | +3.9% | +37.2% |
| Rhode Island | +4.7% | +45.5% |
| South Carolina | +2.4% | +45.4% |
| South Dakota | +1.1% | +35.3% |
| Tennessee | +0.9% | +38.4% |
| Texas | +0.5% | +25.1% |
| Utah | +1.1% | +24.0% |
| Vermont (low volume) | +7.3% | +52.2% |
| Virginia | +3.1% | +37.3% |
| Washington | -0.9% | +20.0% |
| West Virginia (low volume) | +5.6% | +39.7% |
| Wisconsin | +4.8% | +46.0% |
| Wyoming (low volume) | +3.2% | +36.3% |
Source: FHFA, purchase-only House Price Index by state, quarterly, seasonally adjusted (through Q2 2026) and FHFA, Q2 2026 HPI release (Aug. 25, 2026). Calculated: 1-year change = Q2 2026 index / Q2 2025 index - 1; 5-year change = Q2 2026 index / Q2 2021 index - 1. "Low volume" marks places FHFA flags as having fewer than 15,000 transactions over the latest ten years. This product uses FHFA data but is neither endorsed nor certified by FHFA.
Annual Real Estate Growth Rates, 2016 to 2025
House prices kept rising in 2022 and 2023 even as real residential investment and commercial property prices fell, which shows how far the measures can drift apart.
| Year | FHFA house prices (Q4 to Q4) | Commercial property prices (Q4 to Q4) | Real value added, real estate and rental and leasing | Real residential fixed investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +5.8% | +5.4% | +0.8% | +7.1% |
| 2017 | +6.2% | +5.1% | +1.8% | +4.3% |
| 2018 | +5.5% | +0.4% | +3.9% | -0.7% |
| 2019 | +5.5% | +5.7% | +1.5% | -0.9% |
| 2020 | +11.1% | +2.0% | +1.1% | +7.4% |
| 2021 | +17.4% | +13.8% | +6.5% | +10.7% |
| 2022 | +7.7% | -1.6% | +5.8% | -8.2% |
| 2023 | +6.1% | -6.1% | +1.2% | -8.1% |
| 2024 | +4.6% | -2.8% | +2.6% | +3.2% |
| 2025 | +2.0% | +1.6% | +4.0% | -2.7% |
Sources: FHFA, purchase-only HPI summary, U.S., seasonally adjusted (through Q2 2026); BIS, Commercial property price index, United States, all properties; BEA, Value Added by Industry, Table TVA101-A and BEA, NIPA Table 1.1.1 (published Sept. 30, 2026). Calculated: commercial property change = Q4 index / prior-year Q4 index - 1. FHFA figures are FHFA's published change over the prior four quarters at each fourth quarter. BEA figures are annual changes in real (inflation-adjusted) terms.
Size of the U.S. Real Estate Market, 2021 to Q2 2026
Among industries, real estate and rental and leasing made the largest contribution to real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026, adding 0.57 percentage point to growth of 2.2% at an annual rate, according to BEA. Federal Reserve data put household owners' equity in real estate at 71.93% of household real estate value in Q2 2026.
| Period | Value added, real estate and rental and leasing | Share of GDP | Residential fixed investment | Household real estate value | Household owners' equity in real estate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $3,152.9 billion | 13.3% | $1,133.2 billion | $39,128.7 billion | $27,314.2 billion |
| 2022 | $3,472.4 billion | 13.3% | $1,178.2 billion | $41,881.2 billion | $29,227.1 billion |
| 2023 | $3,747.1 billion | 13.5% | $1,110.0 billion | $44,742.9 billion | $31,713.4 billion |
| 2024 | $4,003.0 billion | 13.6% | $1,180.4 billion | $46,891.5 billion | $33,496.9 billion |
| 2025 | $4,234.1 billion | 13.7% | $1,184.8 billion | $47,862.0 billion | $34,073.7 billion |
| Q2 2026 | $4,415.2 billion | 13.6% | $1,182.1 billion | $49,791.7 billion | $35,814.7 billion |
Sources: BEA, Value Added by Industry, Table TVA105; BEA, NIPA Table 1.1.5; BEA, GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 2nd Quarter 2026 and Annual Update (Sept. 30, 2026); Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States Z.1, Q2 2026, Table S1M.b lines 4 and 53 (Sept. 11, 2026). BEA values are current dollars; Q2 2026 BEA values are seasonally adjusted annual rates. Federal Reserve values are end-of-period and not seasonally adjusted; annual rows show year-end. Calculated: share of GDP = industry value added / GDP value added (2025: $4,234,142 million / $30,861,292 million; Q2 2026: $4,415,156 million / $32,563,030 million).
What the Growth Rate Shows
Measured by prices and property values, the U.S. real estate market grew over the past year, while housing starts and new home sales ran below year-earlier levels by margins Census did not find statistically significant. The pace of price growth depended heavily on the state.
Sources
- Federal Housing Finance Agency. "FHFA House Price Index Up 0.3 Percent in July; Up 2.6 Percent from Last Year." September 29, 2026. https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/fhfa-house-price-index-up-0.3-percent-in-july-up-2.6-percent-from-last-year
- Federal Housing Finance Agency. "U.S. House Prices Rise 2.1 Percent Year over Year; Up 0.3 percent Quarter over Quarter." August 25, 2026. https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/u.s.-house-prices-rise-2.1-percent-year-over-year-up-0.3-percent-quarter-over-quarter
- Federal Housing Finance Agency. "House Price Index Datasets" (purchase-only state and summary files, through Q2 2026). Accessed October 22, 2026. https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/datasets
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. "GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 2nd Quarter 2026 and Annual Update." September 30, 2026. https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-third-estimate-industries-corporate-profits-state-gdp-and-state-personal-income-2nd
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. "Value Added by Industry" (Tables TVA101, TVA105). Published September 30, 2026. https://apps.bea.gov/industry/Release/XLS/GDPxInd/ValueAdded.xlsx
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. "National Income and Product Accounts, Section 1" (Tables 1.1.1, 1.1.5). Published September 30, 2026. https://apps.bea.gov/national/Release/XLS/Survey/Section1All_xls.xlsx
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. "Financial Accounts of the United States, Z.1, Second Quarter 2026." September 11, 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/z1.pdf
- Bank for International Settlements. "United States - Commercial property price index, all properties." Accessed October 22, 2026. https://data.bis.org/topics/CPP/BIS%2CWS_CPP%2C1.0/Q.US.0.A.0.2.6.0
- U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. "Monthly New Residential Sales, August 2026." September 24, 2026. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.html
- U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. "Monthly New Residential Construction, September 2026." October 20, 2026. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html
Figures are shown as published by the sources named under each table. How we source and correct: editorial and corrections policy. Spotted an error? Contact us.